Monkinetic Weblog

Trump seeks to further distance himself from increasingly unpopular and politically costly coronavirus lockdowns.

"Unpopular", "politically costly", but effective at flattening the curve. I think maybe people don't realize that in order to #flattenthecurve on #covid19 you have to maintain the suppression activities over the life of the curve. If you stop, the curve goes back up.

This are projections for Arizona from CovidActNow.org:

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Right now the "expected hospitalizations" curve is nice and flat, but lift the restrictions on activities too soon, and the demand for beds exceeds supply in about 10 days. Calling for new restrictions after they've been lifted would be a hard sell to a population frustrated with the isolation and hurting from the economic effects we're already seeing. There's no easy answer, but I believe that solutions are going to involved more government aid to -- yes, small businesses -- but especially to disadvantaged populations who are getting hit the worst.

#lockdown #stayhomestaysafe

Since we’re in #stayhomestaysafe, perfect time to watch the Bourne trilogy

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This data from https://mackuba.eu/corona/#united_states.daily is a week or so old, but this does NOT say "go back to work!" to me #covid19 #stayhomestaysafe

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(R_t) represents the effective reproduction rate of the virus calculated for each locale. It lets us estimate how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a specific area. Values over 1.0 mean we should expect more cases in that area, values under 1.0 mean we should expect fewer.

R_t Live is tracking daily transmission rate values across the US States. My home state of Arizona is currently in a downward trend with an R_t right now of 0.77:

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Looking at the daily case numbers, you can see how small rises in R_t result in muliplicative rises in case numbers:

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We are noticeably flattening the curve in Arizona since late March, but opening up businesses and social gatherings any time soon will change these trends for the worse.

What with #stayhomestaysafe and all, a comment from Les Orchard on Twitter inspired me to re-install Quake 3 Arena... behold the return of Mr. Ni.

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Yeah, I powered through this series due to #stayhomestaysafe, and happy I did. A really fun story, and enjoyed seeing many characters in the_Io_ books introduced here in some more depth.

Between the two Io books and the three Tao books, I really want to read Io 3 (write faster, Wesley).

#scifi #reading #quasingwars

Our family is practicing #stayhomestaysafe so we're currently binging DCI Banks in the evenings...