monkinetic the blog

It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from the outbreaks in China and Italy, that shows the backside of the mortality curve declines slowly, with deaths persisting for months. Assuming we have just crested in deaths at 70k, it is possible that we lose another 70,000 people over the next 6 weeks as we come off that peak. That’s what’s going to happen with a lockdown.

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

(Emphasis mine)

Please, please, please: just because your community says “We’re relaxing restrictions” does NOT mean it’s back to life the way it was before SARS-Cov-2. There is no conspiracy, there is an infectious, contagious, often DEADLY viral agent loose in our populations.